S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 6/8/26

***QUOTING ES1! FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***

WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7400/20

WEEKLY RANGE RES 7635 SUP 7410

MONTHLY RANGE RES 7838 SUP 7258

JHEQX Q3 Collar Short Call Cap: ~7,750 – 7,900 - Long Put Strike: ~7,050 – 7,100 (approx. 5% downside protection) Short Put Strike: ~5,950

DEC2025 OPEX to DEC2026 OPEX is 945 points giving us a range of [5889,7779]

SPX PUT/CALL RATIO 1.06 (The numbers reflect options traded during the current session.) A put-call ratio below 0.7 is generally considered bullish, and a put-call ratio above 1.0 is generally considered bearish.

GS Flow Desk: large S&P 31Aug 7000/7950 strangle in roughly $20mm vega / $115mm premium …My Read – classic “big convexity versus carry” trade: either someone paid a lot to own a wide August move, or someone got paid a lot to bet that the S&P stays comfortably inside the 7000–7950 corridor

DAILY VWAP BULLISH 7662

WEEKLY VWAP BULLISH 7552

MONTHLY VWAP BULLISH 7485

DAILY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7745.75

WEEKLY STRUCTURE - OTFH - TBC

MONTHLY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7345.75

Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favouring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.

One-Time Framing Higher (OTFH): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signalling a strong and consistent upward movement.

One-Time Framing Lower (OTFL): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.

DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 7710/20

GAMMA FLIP 7761

DELTA FLIP 7746

DAILY RANGE RES 7826 SUP 7690

2 SIGMA RES 7894 SUP 7894

VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 17.9  (VVIX / VIX) 5.72 

TRADES & TARGETS 

LONG ON REJECT/RECLAIM DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES > AUG RANGE RES 7838

***ADDITIONAL SETUPS & TARGETS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE CHARTS***

(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)

JPM Ideas & Insights — Tactically Bullish, but Gold Is Flashing Macro Anxiety While Tech Digests the Rebound

US equities paused after the sharp ATH rally, with Tech lagging, semis pulling back, and precious metals exploding higher. The desk remains tactically bullish on US equities, arguing that earnings, nominal growth, AI capex, and cleaner positioning still support risk. But the day’s price action showed some important tensions: macro data were mixed, gold and silver surged, semis cooled, and the market is now more selective after the aggressive FOMO rebound.

The core JPM market-intel message:

Buy stocks tactically, but the biggest risks are near-term bond vol / yields and any resumption of the AI unwind. Preferred expressions remain Tech / Mag7 catch-up, global semis with APAC AI laggards, cyclicals tilted more toward Industrials than Financials, Healthcare, and selective EM ex-AI / LatAm diversifiers.

1. Market Snapshot

The day was relatively quiet from a macro-headline perspective, but single-stock and earnings headlines dominated.

Key equity moves:

• GOOGL -4% after departure of a top AI scientist.

• MSFT -1%

• AMZN -1%

• Semis -3.2%

• AMD -7%

• SNDK -5%

• Momentum -0.3%, with both long and short legs lower.

The most important cross-asset move was in precious metals: gold and silver both rose more than 4%, across both Asia and US trading hours.

2. US / Iran: Quiet Headlines, Oil Stabilizes Lower

The US / Iran news flow was calmer. The key focus remains the Iran-Oman deal around reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but details are still unclear and the US-Iran MOU remains uncertain.

Oil price action was relatively muted after prior volatility:

• WTI fell roughly 1% to US$75.04–75.07.

The ETF desk noted broad-based Energy supply, suggesting customers may be treating the Hormuz de-escalation as credible — perhaps “this is it” after multiple false dawns.

That matters because lower crude is supportive for:

• Inflation expectations

• Fed hike risk

• Consumer discretionary

• Cyclicals

• Equity multiples

• Bond volatility

But the risk is that the market may have moved quickly to price a durable de-escalation before final details are locked.

3. Macro Data: Negative on the Margin, but Not Enough to Break the Growth Story

Macro data were mixed-to-soft at the headline level.

ADP

ADP private payrolls printed 44k, the weakest since January.

JPM Economics’ take:

• ADP does signal potential slowing in job growth.

• But ADP is noisy month-to-month.

• Average absolute error between ADP and BLS first prints over the last year is 64k.

• JPM maintains forecast for BLS private payrolls at 75k.

• Most of the slowdown came from services:

  • Trade / transportation / utilities

  • Education and health

  • Leisure and hospitality

So the ADP print is a warning flag, but not definitive enough to materially change the macro view.

ISM Services

ISM Services was mixed.

The Bad

• Headline missed expectations.

• Inflation inputs increased.

• Prices Paid moved higher.

The Good

• Absolute level increased month-on-month.

• Business Activity had the highest reading since May 2024.

• New Orders posted the fifth-highest reading of the past two-plus years.

• Number of commodity inputs seeing price declines increased.

JPM’s market-intel conclusion: this does not change much.

The economy remains on stable footing, with a high likelihood of finishing 2026 with above-trend GDP growth.

4. Why JPM Still Likes Stocks: Earnings Are Tied to Nominal Growth

JPM’s key equity argument is that S&P earnings are tied more to nominal GDP growth than real growth. Even if the macro data are mixed, nominal growth remains supportive.

Current earnings delivery is described as exceptional:

The simple JPM conclusion:

“We like buying stocks.”

That is the strongest message in the note. The macro data may be mixed, but earnings are strong enough to keep the desk tactically bullish.

5. ETF Desk: Risk Demand Rotates Toward Korea, Nasdaq, Communications, Uranium, REITs

The ETF desk saw a “grab for risk” in block space as volatility squeezed higher.

Institutional demand was seen in:

• Korea: FLKR, EWY

• Nasdaq: QNDX, the new State Street QQQ competitor

• US Communications: XLC

• Uranium: URA / URNM

• Leveraged memory / semis: RAM, the 2x DRAM wrapper

• REITs: USRT / VNQ

REIT demand was spread across accounts, suggesting a wider reallocation rather than a one-off trade.

Supply was limited and concentrated in:

• Low beta

• Energy

• Defensives

• XLP

• XLE

Today, the ETF pad was better to sell, driven by institutional supply in dividend ETFs:

• HDV

• SCHD

The desk thinks this feels more macro Energy-related than pure style factor, because Energy is about 20% of HDV.

6. ETF Trade Ideas: EM AI, US Cyclicals, Fund With Global Developed

The ETF desk highlights three tactical expressions.

1. Buy EM AI-Adjacent

Preferred ETFs:

• EWY

• FLKR

• EWT

• FLTW

The logic:

• QQQ has ripped back quickly and is within roughly 2% of ATHs.

• Korea remains 22% below ATHs.

• Taiwan remains 9% below ATHs.

• If the all-clear is real, lagging EM AI-adjacent markets have room to catch up.

This matches the broader reversion trade in APAC AI plays.

2. Buy US Cyclicals

Preferred ETFs:

• XLF

• XLI

• XME

• XLY

• XLC

The logic:

• Rally-broadening thesis

• Stellar Q2 earnings

• Strong nominal growth

• AI capex spillovers

• Rising tide lifts all boats

JPM’s updated preference is to reduce Financials somewhat in favor of Industrials, given improving economic and earnings data plus potential AI-theme re-risking tailwinds.

3. Fund With Global / Global Developed

Potential funding sources:

• URTH

• IDEV

• VT

The logic:

• JPY intervention jolted yen-denominated assets higher in price terms.

• This may be an advantageous time to take profits.

• Recycle proceeds into higher-juice longs.

7. Earnings Desk Commentary

Healthcare: LLY Strong, Managed Care Maybe Extended

LLY

LLY had a very strong quarter.

Desk view:

• Positioning had been a crowded long.

• But it had washed out somewhat recently.

• Initial stock reaction of +5.3% makes sense.

• Could grind higher.

• Investors expected a good beat, but some had taken profits due to macro tape.

Conclusion: better than expectations.

Broader Healthcare Flow

The healthcare desk saw volatile action after many earnings prints.

Notable themes:

• Hedge funds pressing shorts in names that already had large downside moves.

• Shorts pressing TMDX and MDLN.

• Little defense of favorite longs like CVS.

• Managed care may have run too far too fast.

• Potential rotation into tools / diagnostics.

• Medtech better for sale, with trims in ABT.

• Biotech better to buy.

• AMGN was heavily asked about and may be squeezing on better-than-feared results.

TMT: SHOP Monster Quarter

SHOP was described as a “monster” quarter, driven by both fundamentals and positioning.

Key points:

• SHOP indicated +25% pre-market.

• Good quarter plus fantastic guide.

• More than 30% growth in:

  • GMV

  • Revenue

  • Gross profit

  • Free cash flow

• AI highlighted as expanding what is possible for merchants.

The desk’s key phrase:

“Positioning. Always positioning. And BIG guidance beats.”

Consumer: Wayfair Pullback Buy, But Off Analyst Focus List After Big Move

Wayfair had already surged about 30% after the Q2 beat.

Desk view:

• Chris Horvers had added it to the Analyst Focus List during the February pullback.

• After the strong run, he removes it from the AFL.

• Still would buy dips.

• Remains constructive on long-term story.

• Sees the flywheel accelerating and online opportunity growing.

Memory / Semis

Apple reportedly pushed for cheaper DRAM from China’s CXMT but was rejected. CXMT, supported by long-term deals with Huawei and Xiaomi, demanded prices on par with global leaders.

Memory spot pricing update:

• DRAM spot prices still drifting upward.

• Late-July momentum has faded.

• Overall market is sideways.

• Buyers and sellers struggling to agree on levels.

• Limited volumes.

• Mainstream DDR4 1Gx8 3200MT/s essentially flat at +0.17% WoW, from US$42.04 to US$42.11.

• 4Gb DDR4 and 2Gb DDR3 continue to edge higher.

• NAND spot remains weak due to sluggish end-consumer demand.

The read-through: memory remains tight enough to support pricing, but the pace of upside has slowed.

8. Disney Macro Read-Through: US Consumer Stronger Than Asia

Disney provided one of the more important consumer macro signals.

US Consumer

Domestic parks remain healthy:

• Per-cap spending at domestic parks rose 4%.

Asia Consumer

Management flagged weaker Asian consumer trends:

“We have seen a weaker consumer in Asia, in our parks in Shanghai and Hong Kong in Q3, and that’s continuing in Q4.”

This is consistent with a broader regional divergence:

• US consumer still resilient

• Asian discretionary / tourism consumer softer

• China / Hong Kong consumption still uneven

Disney also noted little impact from oil fluctuations on cruise operations due to hedging and fuel-efficiency initiatives.

9. JPM US Market Intel View: Tactically Bullish

JPM remains tactically bullish.

The macro view:

• Consumer remains resilient.

• AI capex continues to support the economy.

• Earnings delivery is spectacular.

• Profit margins are approaching record highs.

• Biggest near-term risks are bond vol / yields and renewed AI unwind.

Important upcoming catalysts:

• NVDA

• Jackson Hole

• Week of August 24

These will likely decide whether the AI / macro rally extends or stalls.

10. Monetization Menu: Updated Preferences

JPM continues to advocate for three core buckets:

1. Tech

2. Cyclicals

3. Healthcare / uncorrelated plays

But with some tweaks.

Tech

Preferred:

• Tactical long Mag7

• Global semis

• APAC AI reversion trade, especially Korea

Rationale:

• Mag7 / hyperscalers were under the microscope for AI capex and ROI.

• Market may be changing its mind.

• Backlog grew more than 150% YoY to around US$1.7T.

• Capex growth was around 80%.

• Net new ARR grew around 150%.

• AMZN CEO comments were bullish for the cohort.

This may assuage AI ROI concerns because forward revenues may exceed capex more convincingly.

JPM sees a catch-up trade in Mag7 / MegaCap Tech ex-Semis.

Valuation argument:

• Group trades more than 2 standard deviations below its mean since 2018Q3 on forward P/E.

• Implies roughly 30% upside to just one standard deviation below mean.

• Implies roughly 56% upside to return to average valuation.

Cyclicals

Previously JPM favored:

• Financials

• Consumer plays

• Strait-of-Hormuz reopening trades

Now they prefer reducing Financials in favor of:

• Industrials

Reasons:

• Potential improvement in economic data

• Better global earnings data

• Re-risking in AI theme

• AI capex spillover into industrial economy

If the momentum unwind has completed, anti-momentum trades like Quality Cyclicals and Defensives may consolidate.

Uncorrelated Plays

Healthcare remains attractive as an uncorrelated expression.

JPM also flags:

• EM ex-AI

• LatAm

LatAm works as a diversifier if US stabilizes or if AI-theme volatility returns.

11. EM View: Country Relative Trades Over Broad EM Beta

JPM expects growing divergence in EM performance by country and sector. They prefer country-relative trades.

Long China H-Shares Over A-Shares

Rationale:

• H-shares have lagged YTD.

• Korea, Taiwan, and A-shares benefited more from AI optimism.

• Cyclical H-share segments may benefit from cost-effective corporate AI build-out and commercialization.

• Crowded China AI supply-chain / model winners may see profit-taking.

Long Asia Refiners

Rationale:

• Geopolitical uncertainty and refinery utilization pushed Asia gross refining margins to record highs.

• Current supply / demand backdrop supports higher GRMs.

• Group has rallied MTD but remains 9% below February highs.

Hedges: Long LatAm

Preferred ETF:

• ILF

Rationale:

• Diversifies against EM AI pullback.

• More resilient to geopolitical risks.

12. Tactical Synthesis

Bullish Supports

• Earnings are exceptional.

• Margins near record highs.

• Nominal growth supports EPS.

• AI capex continues to spill into broader economy.

• Mag7 / hyperscaler ROI concerns may be fading.

• Positioning is cleaner after momentum unwind.

• APAC AI laggards have catch-up potential.

• Industrials can benefit from AI capex and stronger growth.

• Healthcare offers uncorrelated exposure.

Key Risks

• Bond vol / higher yields

• Fed credibility / inflation risk

• Renewed AI unwind

• Semis pulling back after sharp rebound

• Gold / silver surge signaling macro anxiety

• ADP hinting at slowing job growth

• ISM Prices Paid moving higher

• US / Iran deal details still unclear

• Asia consumer weakness

The most notable contradiction in the tape is that equities are only modestly lower, while gold and silver are up more than 4%. That suggests investors are not abandoning risk, but they are buying macro hedges aggressively.