Daily Market Outlook, February 10, 2026
Daily Market Outlook, February 10, 2026
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
Global equities continued their advance, as a recovery in U.S. technology stocks gained steam. This rebound helped ease market concerns that had been fuelled by fears of overspending on artificial intelligence. The MSCI All Country World Index, a key barometer of global equity performance, edged up by 0.2%, marking a new record. Asian markets also joined the rally, with equities surging 1.3% to hit an all-time high, driven largely by tech giants like SoftBank Group. The S&P 500, which gained around $1 trillion in market value late last week, continued its upward trajectory, inching closer to record levels. Tech stocks, previously at the heart of the downturn, extended their recovery. Semiconductor shares climbed 1.4%, and a software-focused ETF recorded its second consecutive day of gains, soaring nearly 7% over two days. Oracle led the charge, jumping 9.6%. Alphabet is making waves as it plans to raise $20 billion through a U.S. dollar bond sale to fuel its AI expansion, surpassing initial expectations of $15 billion. The tech giant is also exploring new territory with its first-ever bond offerings in Switzerland and the UK, including a rare issuance of 100-year bonds. Meanwhile, the Chinese Yuan climbed to its strongest level since May 2023, following reports that China instructed banks to limit their holdings of U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. Dollar remained relatively unchanged, while gold saw a slight dip after two consecutive days of gains, as investors cashed in amid ongoing market volatility. The rising stock prices signalled a cooling of anxiety surrounding the AI-driven tech trade, which had rattled software companies and cast uncertainty over high-spending tech behemoths in recent weeks. As this narrative unfolds, traders are now turning their attention to upcoming U.S. economic data, which could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates. Elsewhere, Japan’s Yen gained 0.4% following Prime Minister Takaichi’s landmark election victory over the weekend, though it remains near 155 per dollar. On the cryptocurrency front, Bitcoin slipped below the $70,000 mark, while the British Pound held steady as Keir Starmer solidified his position as the UK Prime Minister.
January’s UK REC jobs report showed slight improvement in hiring conditions. Permanent hiring declines slowed (46.9 from 44.3), and temporary billings returned to growth (50.3 from 47.6). Staff availability dropped (58.1 from 66.3), while salary growth quickened slightly. Vacancies continued to fall sharply (43.8 from 43.4), despite improved recruitment sentiment boosted by reduced Budget uncertainties. However, economic concerns remain high, with rising costs affecting activity and margins. Firms favour temporary hires for flexibility amid uncertain conditions, suggesting further payroll contraction ahead. The BoE’s unemployment forecast of 5.3% may underestimate labour market deterioration.
The Eurozone outlook has improved, but markets focus more on negatives than positives. Despite better PMI releases, concerns persist about the manufacturing sector's crisis and the euro's strength potentially hurting exports. However, economic momentum is improving: services PMIs turned positive in September and remain strong, while manufacturing contraction has narrowed. Despite export pressures, the region ended 2025 with a trade surplus of 1.0% of GDP, with Germany achieving 6.6%. February's Sentix survey showed rising confidence (index at 4.2 from -1.8 in January), driven by optimism on fiscal spending, global conditions, and modest monetary support. These trends are likely to bolster the euro in the first half of the year
Overnight Headlines
Trump Threatens To Block Detroit–Canada Bridge In New Trade Row
Japan PM’s Landslide Election Win Points To Looser Fiscal Policy
BoE’s Mann: China Raising Export Prices Due To US Tariffs
Trump Says Warsh Can Get US Economy To Hit 15% Growth
Fed’s Waller Says Trump-Induced Crypto Euphoria May Be Fading
Fed’s Miran Says Americans Aren’t Shouldering Tariff Hit
US Plans Big Tech Carve-Out From Next Wave Of Chip Tariffs
Alphabet Reportedly Set For $20B US Bond Sale
Waymo Goes Fully Autonomous In Nashville
Target Cuts 500 Jobs, Boosts Store Staffing Investment
Carlyle’s Currie Says Oil, Metals Markets Are ‘Underinvested’
Chevron Buys West Texas Ranch In ‘Zombie’ Oil Well Settlement
Novo Nordisk Hits Back At Copycat Drugs
On Semi Q4 Sales Fall On Persistent Weakness In Power, Analog Units
EU Parliament To Vote On €90B Ukraine Loan Wednesday
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)
EUR/USD: 1.1800-10 (2.2BLN), 1.1820-30 (444M), 1.1850 (1.72BLN)
1.1870-75 (926M), 1.1895-05 (923M), 1.1910 (1.2BLN), 1.1925-30. (675M)
1.1940-45 (970M), 1.1980 (501M), 1.2000 92.24BLN), 1.2050-55 (353M)
USD/JPY: 155.00 (345M), 156.00 (456M), 156.50 (202M), 156.75 (349M)
157.00 (1.1BLN), 158.00 (376M), 158.50 (434M)
EUR/CHF: 0.9170 (376M)
GBP/USD: 1.3590 (203M), 1.3640-50 (293M), 1.3760 (290M)
EUR/GBP: 0.8730 (314M)
AUD/USD: 0.7065-70 (317M), 0.7000 (1.14BLN
CFTC Positions as of February 7th:
Speculators are making moves in the Treasury futures market! In the latest update, they’ve ramped up their net short positions across several categories. For CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures, the net short position surged by 67,934 contracts, reaching a total of 2,158,980 contracts. Similarly, CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures saw an increase of 3,263 contracts, pushing the net short position to 729,414. The 2-year Treasury futures took an even bigger leap, with speculators adding 128,603 contracts to hit a new total of 1,347,602.There was a slight trimming in the UltraBond Treasury futures net short position, which dropped by 4,382 contracts to settle at 269,089. Meanwhile, CBOT US Treasury bonds futures saw a modest rise of 5,437 contracts, bringing the net short position to 13,604.
Equity futures, speculators in equity funds boosted their net short positions on S&P 500 CME futures by 17,266 contracts, now totaling 437,953 contracts. However, equity fund managers showed a more bullish outlook, increasing their net long positions by 17,515 contracts to reach an impressive 927,508.
In currencies and Bitcoin, the latest data shows Bitcoin holding steady with a net long position of 1,008 contracts. The Swiss franc posted a net short position of -40,717 contracts, while the British pound recorded a net short position of -13,911 contracts. The euro stood out with a strong net long position of 163,361 contracts. Finally, the Japanese yen showed a net short position of -19,222 contracts.
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 6900 Target 7040
Below 6890 Target 6840
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 1.1860 Target 1.1960
Below 1.1840 Target 1.1750
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 1.3635 Target 1.3760
Below 1.3625 Target 1.35
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 154.35 Target 157.50
Below 153.50 Target 151
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 4900 Target 5200
Below 4880 Target 4700
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 71k Target 75k
Below 70k Target 53k
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72% and 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!